Since the advent of offshoring, India's economy has had a dream run, and India has been transformed from a " backward " country of " snake charmers " to a rapidly advancing society of software geeks. But how long will this dream run , almost entirely dependent upon offshoring , continue ?

Two Indias, side by side : On the left is the office of a MNC bank, with its shiny glass facade. On the right is the white Ambassador car ( which is pretty much unchanged since 1950s ), and on the extreme right is the autorickshaw.

The Other ( Dark ) side of the moon.

First of all , let me make it clear that I am no economist or management expert, just an ordinary ( but nonconformist )individual with an investigative bent of mind. And neither i am a doomsday prophet.
In the previous decade, the Indian economy has grown by leaps and bounds ,and India has emerged the second-fastest growing major economy of the world. India now has great economic clout . Most of this impressive progress has been due to the practice of OFFSHORING, defined simply as the practice of hiring an external organization to carry out some business-functions in a country other than the one where the goods and services are actually sold. It is an example of labour arbitrage, in which a company outsources work to low-wage countries to save manpower costs. The simple logic behind this practice is that a worker ( whether a call-center employee or a computer programmer ) in India takes only a fraction of the wages taken by a US worker for the same job, thereby saving the company great deal of costs and hence improving its competetiveness and enabling it to offer goods and services to customers at a much lower cost , than would have been otherwise possible.

I have observed that Indian media just reveals the benefits of offshoring, not its negative consequences . Common sense would reveal that there is a flaw in this practice: a flaw that might eventually undo the very reason why offshoring was adopted. If offshoring contributes to increasing job losses in the US, then the consumer spending in the US is bound to plummet, and the sales and therefore the profits of the companies are bound to suffer . ( and if this continues unabated, the loss in sales due to mass unemployment will might even neutralise the cost-saving on offshoring work overseas. ) Indeed, at the time of writing this article , the US was staring at what is called a " jobless recovery " with the GDP growing at 5.7 % but with double-digit unemployment.

A simple web-search on Google.com ( not on google.co.in ,the Indian version ) reveals that even today, there is no consensus among economic experts on the long-term sustainability of this practice. There are arguments both FOR ( in favor of ) and AGAINST this practice, and many experts seem to be unsure that whether , in the long run, which one of the set of arguments would win. The situation seems to me (after reading expert opinion on many American websites ) that even today , there is NO UNANIMITY or CONSENSUS among experts about the long-term consequences of this practice. Proponents of offshoring often cite a report by Mc Kinsey , released in 2003, which declares offshoring to be a " win-win situation " , which will bring benefits both to US as well as India, but disproportionately more to the US. But soon the accuracy of this report was challenged by another report released by Economic Policy Institute.

Even I myself found some of the arguments of offshoring's proponents to be flawed: one of them being that when low-skilled ( and low paying ) jobs are offshored, American companies would be able to create more higher-skilled jobs due to the more profit earned after offshoring. For anybody who has ever turned the pages of a psychology textbook, this seems to be a poor joke. Simply because most of the low-skilled workers would lack the intelligence (IQ ) to take up higher-skilled jobs . ( the correlation between IQ and work performance has been known since decades ) . This might leave the laid-off low-skilled workers unemployed for long periods.

I also was not convinced by the arguments of the proponents of offshoring that how offshoring would create more jobs in the US in the long-run. Today, a whole spectrum of jobs, from call-center to programming , to website designing to even reading X-ray reports and medical transcription are offshored . The proponents say that services like retail , restaurants, education , construction etc are ones which can never be offshored and expansion in these would compensate for the loss of jobs in call centers and IT. But I am not sure if I know anyone who considers the job of a restaurant waiter or cook as prestigious as that of a IT professional.

Once again, I would emphasize , that I am no expert, I have only read many articles on this issue, analysing them neutrally. And I have come to the conclusion that there is simply no consensus among economists about this practice, that offshoring has both its pros and its cons . (right now the pros outweigh the cons, but how long will this last ? ) As a psychology student, i have often wondered why the Indian media only reveals the positive aspect of offshoring, only the arguments in favour of offshoring , only the pros and not the cons ? Is this not an example of selective exposure ?

http://management.about.com/cs/generalmanagement/i/offshoring.htm-- read both the pages of this neutral , balanced debate.
http://www.answers.com/topic/offshoring : another balanced, neutral discussion.
http://hei.unige.ch/~baldwin/ComparativeAdvantageMyths/IsOffshoringWinWin_McKinsey.pdf
--the Mc Kinsey report often cited by offshoring proponents.
http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp155/-- Mc Kinsey report challenged for its alleged inaccuracy.
http://www.citizenstrade.org/orftc-release100308.phpnearly 1 in 5 Oregon jobs are offshorable . countless such articles can be found online.
http://www.citizenstrade.org/orftc-release100308.php-- the grim picture for MN.

State-patronised and funded Fraud in India

While returning from a visit to the train station in lucknow, i could not help noticing huge billboards announcing tall claims by ayurvedic practitioners for treatment of every malaise ,ranging from impotence to cancer. One cannot help note that the country whose Constitution declares a fundamental duty of citizens to promote scientific temper, actually abounds with all sorts of State-sponsored fraud.

Let us be very clear about the fact that none of the claims of Ayurved are backed by any systematic evidence. None of the ayurvedic medicines have ever undergone stringent tests to establish effectiveness and safety. I am not a doctor, and realizing this simple truth doesn't require a medical qualification: If any of the claims of ayurveda or other traditional therapies were proved to be effective and safe , these therapies would have been adopted into mainstream medical science. Any new drug or other therapy has to pass a stringent set of tests (" clinical trials " ) to establish both the effectiveness and safety ; such tests are very elaborate and stringent; and only on passing these does the drug regulatory authority approves the use of the particular therapy for the particular disease or symptoms. ( if a herbal preparation proves to be effective and safe for treating a set of symptoms , it would be included in the mainstream medicine )

Ayurvedic and other herbal preparations may or may not be effective, there is no way of telling this until the proper tests are carried out. What it means is that the large number of patients flocking to ayurvedic clinics are actually being duped by the unproven and unsubstantiated claims of herbal practitioners.

And what's truly amazing is that despite knowing very well that all the claims of ayurved and herbal medicine are hollow, unproven and unsubstantiated in the absence of any well-documented evidence, the Indian Government has decided to patronise these practices by recognizing and funding these, ostensibly in the name of promoting "indian cultural heritage ". One can easily see how the indian government has compromised with the health of so many gullible indians by exposing them to unproven treatments which might even be unsafe.

( From herbal medicines to spiritual ways of healing depression and anxiety , such alternative therapies are legal everywhere in the world. But only in India do they receive State patronage and funding in the absence of any credible systematic evidence .)

india--from midnight* to millenium,and beyond.

When India gained independence in 1947, India was characterized , in words of one commentator, by " heart-wrenching poverty, overwhelming illiteracy and a society with diverse ethnic groups having little in common other than mutual dislike and fear for each other ". India was the land of snake-charmers and superstitions, and advancement, prosperity and development seemed to be concepts belonging to another world .

Today, India seems to have changed beyond recognition--but perhaps the change and progress has been uneven. Millions of people have been lifted from poverty and illiteracy , and they have joined ranks of the ever-burgeoning indian middle class. For the urban middle class, development and progress has been most pronounced--they have come a long way from bullock-carts to motorcycles and hatchbacks, and now increasingly, mid-sized cars. The lifestyle of the urban middle class has begun resembling global lifestyles-with Mc Donalds and malls rapidly emerging on the urban landscape.

But somethings have not changed much since 1947--cattle still roam the streets ,since they are considered sacred by the still-superstitious hindus. Most people still consider it a taboo to marry outside one's caste. And wedding dates are still decided by astrologers. And dowry continues to be an evil. Astrology continues to be the ubiquotous indian obsession. The vast majority of Indians continue to be "caste-minded vegetarian dowry seekers and givers "And yes, bicycles , pedestrians and even cattle jostle for space with bikes and hatchbacks on modern India's roads. The Ambassador ( a British car of colonial era ) continues to the favourite among India's officialdom.

This was the situation among the urban middle classes--in the rural countryside,society and values haven't changed much since 1947. The rural society is still characterised by poor education , or a complete lack of education, rigid caste and community based values, with "honour killings" being the treatment given to those who dare to defy caste boundaries. The status of rural women hasn't really changed a lot, and girls are still seen as a burden by families. The Indian farmer , barring those in prosperous areas like Punjab, is still (to varying extents )at the mercy of monsoon ("weather gods" ) for irrigating his fields. And the poor rural folk continue to flock to urban areas to work as construction workers , and constitute the growing population of slums and shanties. But most apalling is the fact , that most rural and slum-dwelling Indians still lack the basic amenities of piped water and toilet facilities. Indeed, its not rare to find rural and slum folk defecating in the open, at the outskirts of any Indian city.

In a nutshell, India is a country where tremendous progress has been made,especially for the urban middle classes. But the vast majority of the rural population still lives without the most basic amenities of life. But having said that, the urban middle class too has to undergo a great deal of social progress before it can claim to be truly modern.
(*-refers to the midnight of August 14-15, 1947, when India gained independence. "India-from midnight to millenium " is a book by Shashi Tharoor, ace Indian diplomat )

Here are excerpts from my conversation/discussions with members of the athiest community on facebook. I had asked members to respond if they wanted to know how the irrational beliefs of hinduism are compromising with public health in india, and the scientific/medical community is silent.

One member, erik sent me a message.


Erik Rochelmeyer 07 February at 00:31
Hi Manu,
your story sounds interesting. I got married in India in y2k in a sikh temple. I am religious, pagan actually but I like debating with atheists as I think that some of them have fundamentalist views. I show respect though.
So what is the story about the health thing from hinduism? Would interest me.
:-)
Erik

Manu Maheshwari 09 February at 14:56
mr. Erik, i have already discussed this on the athiests page. go to my original post on the athiest page. http://www.facebook.com/#!/group.php?gid=26934252814

In short, as you might be aware, hinduism forbids its members to eat meat. Hindus have a very strong irrational prejudice toward meat.
well it turns out that there is a essential nutrient called vitamin b12 that is present in foods of animal origin only. since hindus are barred from consuming meat, it results in b12 deficiency --their only source of b12 is dairy products. a recent study found that 81 % of affluent indians in a large city are atleast slightly deficient.

mind you, there is almost no awareness of this issue, hindus in india prescribe vegetairinism for everyone, blissfully unaware of the possible consequences. despite the alarming figure of 81 %, the whole issue has been "hushed up " . --few doctors are aware of either the prevalence or consequences of this--and hardly any reseach is done on this topic. This is the result of religious irrational thought and prejudice preventing people from addressing an issue of immense public health importance.

and just imagine what would be the situation if someone is lactose intolerant-a condition which prevents people from drinking milk --one of the very few sources of b12 in indian diet.
well i stopped drinking milk at an early age, maybe because i am lactose intolerant or simply i dont like the taste. this means that for my entire childhood, yogurt was the only source of b12.
but when i went out to study in college, somehow, my food-supplier did not include yogurt in the meals.
this resulted in b12 deficiency--and memory loss, cognitive impairment,-behavioural changes, and depression.
this destroyed my studies,and career---and 3 years of sustaning humilation and frustation ( poor memory led to shameful academic performance )
eventually in 2006 i succumbed to full-blown mental illness.
i recovered only in 2009 .

and despite the high prevalence and serious consequences of b12 deficiency, india's scientific and medical community have been silent on the issue, nearly neglected it, as if denying its existence.
most people (including doctors and scientists ) in india, would hesitate to accept the truth, simply because it contravenes their strongly held prejudices and dogmas. result--millions suffering, perhaps even dying ( i attempted suicide many times ) .

there has been no attempt to spread awareness on this issue, it seems that the issue has been " hushed up " , pushed under the carpet. all becase it contradicts an irrational doctrine.

hardly any research is done on this--very few doctors are aware--and meanwhile millions of careers and lives are destroyed.

Here is the original discussion on the athiests page.

Manu Maheshwari-- hello friends !! do you know something about hinduism, the major religion in India , and as much an evil as Christianity and Islam. Hinduism is as irrational, and evil as western religions but it spreads its evil in slightly different ways. The irrational beliefs of Hinduism have hijacked science in India, even in such vital fields like Public Health. My career and mental health were destroyed due to the irrational beliefs of hinduism. (even though i was always a non-believer, irony ) . The irrational beliefs on hinduism are harming the health of Indians, and India's scientific and medical community is just watching silently. If you are interested in knowing how religion-inspired irrational beliefs are compromising public health in india, please send me a message on FB. Thank you

One friend Shawna guessed correctly that this must be about B12 deficiency arising due to vegetairinism common among hindus. But she said that I can take B12 supplements.

Manu Maheshwari
haha... thats the evil about religion... nobody , including doctors in india are willing to admit publicily that vegetarian food is lacking in an essential nutrient. thats perhaps because the doctors' religious prejudices prevent them from admitting this fact, no scientist wants to conduct research on this topic.. simply because admitting this fact would contravene their religious beliefs.

Manu Maheshwari-- the result : common people are blissfully unaware of the problem, there is no awareness of the issue, pharmacies dont stock vitamin b12 supplements (yes ) , and doctors too are largely unaware of this problem.
not only hinduism forbids its members from eating meat, it also forbids members to eat yogurt during winters ( superstition ) .
no doctor/scientist in india is ever going to admit the fact of vitamin b12 deficiency , simply because it conflicts with the widely held prejudices in indian society

Manu Maheshwari-- in india, practically nobody is aware of the problem, it has been CENSORED, just like political information is censored in China

Manu Maheshwari-- In india, nobody has a choice to be a vegetarian. or non-vegetarian. all are forced to be vegetarian since the demand for meat is so low, meat prices are very high, and beyond the means of even the middle class

One friend Craig said that such tendencies of religious dogmas and vegetarianism prevail only in small Indian cities and not in larger cities of india.

Manu Maheshwari-- to Craig--My friend, you are mistaken --Ironically , it is india's affluent and educated middle and upper classes that stick more tenaciously to religious prejudices and dogmas. This is because most of India's affluent educated people belong to hindu upper caste.. -one of my old college friends, who is now a researcher in cambridge, would not even touch meat, and would eat nothing( yes, nothing ) on certain specified days. I have seen those pursuing PhD on nutrition ( yes, nutrition ! ) unanimously condemning any concern on vitamin b12 deficiency, just because perhaps it doesnt go well with their dogmas and prejudices

Glynis Scott-- That's really dreadful

A case of misplaced priorities ?

A recent news report celebrates the fact that an airport in India has been adjugded to be among the best in the world. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5583303.cms. Initially this seems to be a good news, but soon we realize the irony .

India is still an overwhelmingly poor country, and air travel is far beyond the means of all Indians , except a miniscule elite minority. As a member of India's affluent middle class, I am aware that extremely few in India use air travel for leisure; Air travel is reserved mostly for emergency purposes like attending a job interview or college admission when rail tickets aren't available at all due to peak season rush. In this scenario, building the world's best airport in India seems to a example of mindless extravagance, and shows how eliltism has hijacked our national priorities.

A government which claims to uphold and promote the interests of the aam aadmi ( common man ) decides to spend a fortune building a luxury even the affluent middle class of India can rarely afford. Why can't we have the world's best railway station , a facility which caters to the common people ? Or for that matter, the world's best university or college, which will produce world class human resource ? Its shocking beyond words that the Indian government considers building luxury infrastructure which caters to extremely miniscule elite, more important than creating good educational institutions which would help build a better future for India's masses.

Another example of how elitist tendencies has hijacked governance in India, is the colossal amount of money spent on the Commonwealth Games. All this money could have been spent on improving the quality of government schools and colleges, most of which are in an apalling condition. Government healthcare infrastructure may be apalling (as somebody who has had the misfortune of getting treatment at AIIMS ,I know this well ), but India also boasts of hi-tech private hospitals which offer world class treatment and even cater to westerners looking for cheap treatments. Perhaps 21st century India lays more importance on blowing its own trumpet rather than any meaningful development.

But this kind of elitist superficial prosperity cannot hide modern India's grim reality. We are still counted among the poorest among the world . India's rank in the Human Development Index is 134th out of 179 countries, and our GDP per capita is 126th. With such figures, it seems highly unlikely that India's masses would be able to enjoy the services of Hyderabad Airport for many decades to come.

On a slightly brighter note, these developments would only reinforce India's reputation as The Land of Contrasts-- a country of slums and palaces.